Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are considering investing in a massive natural gas project in Alaska in an attempt to reach trade deals that would both satisfy demands from President Donald Trump and avoid high U.S. tariffs on their exports.
Alaska has long sought to build an 800-mile pipeline crossing the state from the North Slope in the Arctic Circle to the Cook Inlet in the south, where gas would be cooled into liquid for export to Asia. The project, with a staggering price tag topping $40 billion, has been stuck on the drawing board for years.
Alaska LNG, as the project is known, is showing new signs of life — with Trump touting the project as a national priority. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said earlier this month that the liquified natural gas (LNG) project could play an important role in trade negotiations with South Korea, Japan and Taiwan.
“We are thinking about a big LNG project in Alaska that South Korea, Japan [and] Taiwan are interested in financing and taking a substantial portion of the offtake,” Bessent told reporters on April 9, saying such an agreement would help meet Trump’s goal of reducing the U.S. trade deficit.
Taiwan’s state oil and gas company CPC Corp. signed a letter of intent in March to purchase six million metric tons of gas from Alaska LNG, said Brendan Duval, CEO and founder of Glenfarne Group, the project’s lead developer.
“You can imagine the geopolitical enhancements whether it’s for tariff or military reasons — Taiwan is really, really focused on getting that signed up,” Duval told CNBC in an interview. CPC has also offered to invest directly in Alaska LNG and supply equipment, Duval said.
March trade mission
Duval and Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy traveled to South Korea and Japan on a trade mission in March, meeting with high-ranking officials in government and industry. Japanese and South Korean companies have asked whether their development banks can help finance Alaska LNG, Duval said.
“Lately, there has been quite a lot of inquiries from India, so there’s a fourth horse that’s entered the race,” Duval said. Thailand and other Asian countries have also shown interest, he said.
The Alaska LNG project has three major pieces: The pipeline, a gas processing plant on the North Slope and a plant to liquify the gas for export at Nikiski, Alaska. These facilities are estimated to cost roughly $12 billion, $10 billion, and $20 billion respectively, Dunleavy said at an energy conference in Houston in March.
The permits for Alaska LNG are already in place, the CEO said. Glenfarne expects to reach a final investment decision in the next six to 12 months on the first phase of the project, a pipeline from the North Slope to Anchorage that will supply gas for domestic consumption in Alaska, Duval said.
Construction on the LNG plant is expected to begin in late 2026, the CEO said. The goal is to complete construction on the entire Alaska LNG project in four and a half years with full commercial operations starting in 2031, he said.
Alaska LNG plans to produce 20 million metric tons of LNG per year, equal to about 23% of the 87 million tons of LNG that the U.S. exported last year, according to data from Kpler, a commodity researcher.
Unleashing Alaskan resources
Alaska plays a central role in Trump’s goal to boost production and exports of U.S. oil and gas, part of the White House’s agenda for U.S. “energy dominance.” The president issued an executive order on his first day in office seeking to tap Alaska’s “extraordinary resource potential,” prioritizing the development of LNG in the state.
“We’ll have that framed on our walls in Alaska for decades,” Gov. Dunleavy said at the Houston conference last month, referring to the executive order.
Once a net importer, the U.S. has rapidly become the largest exporter of LNG in the world, playing an increasingly vital role in fueling power plants in Asia and Europe for allies with limited domestic energy resources. Japan and South Korea, for example, each took about 8% of U.S. LNG exports last year, according to Kpler data.
The Trump administration views Alaska LNG as “an important strategic project,” Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said at the Houston energy conference. LNG exports from Alaska would reach Japan in about eight days rather than having to pass through the congested Panama Canal from terminals on the Gulf Coast, Dunleavy said at the same conference.
“They can have the opportunity to get delivered to them the most efficient LNG from an allied partner,” while avoiding chokepoints, Duval said. “This is the only LNG the U.S. can supply that has a direct route, and they are very cognizant about that in today’s environment.”
North Pacific talks
Trump told reporters during a joint press conference with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba in February that the two countries were discussing the pipeline and the possibility of a joint venture to exploit Alaska oil and gas. Trump said he discussed the “large scale purchase of U.S. LNG” in an April 8 phone call with South Korea’s acting President Han Duck-Soo, and Korea’s participation in a “joint venture in an Alaska pipeline.”
Japan wants to maintain its security agreement with the U.S. against a rising China and avoid tariffs, officials at the Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority told the Alaska Senate finance committee during a February presentation. “We are now in a completely ‘transactional’ trade world,” the executives said. Tokyo must invest more in the U.S., buy more LNG and enter a joint venture linked to Alaska oil and gas, they said.
The project would likely be a structured as a loose joint venture, with Asian partners signing contracts for large volumes of LNG, Duval said, and won’t necessarily translate into Japan, Taiwan and South Korea holding direct equity stakes in Alaska LNG, though Glenfarne is open to the possibility, he said.
Glenfarne’s goal is to be the long-term owner and operator of Alaska LNG with partners, Duval said. Glenfarne is a privately-held developer, owner and operator of energy infrastructure based in New York City and Houston. The company assumed a 75% stake in Alaska LNG from the Alaska Gasline Development Corporation in March, with AGDC keeping 25%.
Roadblocks and commercial viability
The Trump administration is clearly pressuring Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan to invest in Alaska LNG, said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy and former energy advisor to President George W. Bush. Although Japan wants to both placate Trump and diversify its LNG supplies, Tokyo may yet hesitate to invest in Alaska LNG due to the project’s cost, complexity and risk, McNally said.
Another roadblock is that Democrats could return to power in 2028 and try to stop the project from advancing, citing environmental effects, McNally said. President Joe Biden, after all, paused permits for new LNG exports to countries including Japan that don’t have free trade agreements with the U.S. But Trump reversed Biden’s suspension as part of a torrent of executive orders tied to energy on his first day in office in January.
In addition to political risk, Alaska LNG “doesn’t have a clear cut commercial logic,” said Alex Munton, head of global gas and LNG research at Rapidan. “If it did, it would have had a lot more support than it has thus far, and this project has been on the planning board for literally decades,” Munton said. There are more attractive, existing LNG options for Asian customers on the Gulf Coast, he said.
The project is expensive even by the standards of an LNG industry that builds some of the costliest infrastructure in the energy sector, Munton said. The price tag of more than $40 billion likely needs to be revised upwards given that it is two years old, the analyst said.
“You have to assume that the costs are going to be much higher than the publicly quoted figures,” Munton said. Alaska LNG will likely need “public policy or a public commitment of funds to bring it to life,” the analyst said.
Duval said Alaska LNG will be competitive with no government subsidy. “It is a naturally competitive source of LNG, independent of the geopolitical benefits, independent of the tariff discussions,” he said.
“We have the support of the president of the United States,” Dunleavy said in Houston. “We have Asian allies that need gas. Geopolitical alliances are changing. Tariff questions are coming up. When we really look at it in that context, it’s a very viable project.”
