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A possible Ruben ramp delay and U.S. revenue sharing – what Gabelli Funds’ Makino is watching in Nvidia’s earnings
Even though expectations for Nvidia’s upcoming earnings report are high, the company is likely not to disappoint. This is the view from Ryuta Makino, research analyst at Gabelli Funds.
“The question currently is on the Blackwell ramp and any update on the H20 re-ramp, given that the export license restrictions have been lifted in China,” Makino says. “There may be questions on the 15% revenue share with the government and how that may impact ultimate end-demand.”
Another story he’s looking for is on the Rubin ramp, which is expected in 2026. Makino notes that “there are some rumors that it may be delayed or the ramp will be slower than initial expectations.”
Makino is also watching for competitive issues. Some of the developments to keep an eye on include Advanced Micro Devices’ (AMD) upcoming GPU lineup and Broadcom’s (AVGO) ASICs. Additionally, some Chinese firms are taking market share from the Nvidia H20.
“On the networking side, we’re hearing more about Arista Networks’ (ANET) strength against NVLink,” he says. “So, it would be interesting to hear about the strength of Nvidia’s networking as well.”
– Tom Taulli
Does Nvidia pay a dividend?
Nvidia pays a small quarterly dividend of 1 cent per share, which works out to 4 cents per share annually.
Based on the chipmaker’s current share price, this equates to a dividend yield of 0.02%. This is well below the S&P 500’s current dividend yield of 1.2%.
In fiscal 2025, Nvidia paid roughly $834 billion in dividends. It also bought back $33.7 billion in stock.
– Karee Venema
Related: The Kiplinger Dividend 15: Our Favorite Dividend-Paying Stocks
Nvidia’s next-gen efforts, robotics updates and competition are top of mind for analysts
Jamie Meyers, senior analyst at Laffer Tengler Investments, is upbeat ahead of Nvidia’s earnings announcement.
“We’ve seen strong demand intra-quarter, along with companies like OpenAI complaining about cloud capacity and chip availability,” Meyers notes. “Moreover, with a resumption of China H20 shipments, we expect the loss of revenue – at $8 billion last quarter – from China sales will be significantly less or mostly eliminated.”
Meyers also expects management to comment on both sovereign and Blackwell Ultra ramps. “As such, we believe earnings will skew to the upside,” he adds.
For the earnings call, Meyers wants to learn more about next-generation efforts, including those for robotics. To this end, Nvidia has inked partnerships with firms like Siemens and Schneider Electric.
He also wants to see updates about software and AI tools, such as the NeMo framework (for building generative AI models), new Omniverse libraries and the Cosmos world foundation models (for robotics).
Finally, Meyers is looking to hear more about any impacts from rivals. “We are monitoring whether the hyperscalers’ own chips will cut into Nvidia’s demand, though we don’t see evidence of that yet.”
– Tom Taulli
Tom Taulli
Kiplinger contributor
Tom Taulli has been developing software since the 1980s. He sold his applications to a variety of publications. In college, he started his first company, which focused on the development of e-learning systems. He would go on to create other companies as well, including Hypermart.net that was sold to InfoSpace in 1996. Along the way, Tom has written columns for online publications such as Bloomberg, Forbes, Barron’s and Kiplinger. He has also written a variety of books, including Artificial Intelligence Basics: A Non-Technical Introduction.
What time is Nvidia’s earnings release?
Nvidia will release its fiscal second-quarter earnings report after the stock market closes on Wednesday, August 27. The results typically come through around 4:20 pm to 4:30 pm Eastern Standard Time.
The release of Nvidia’s earnings report will be followed by a conference call, which will begin at 5 pm EST.
– Karee Venema
Karee Venema
Senior investing editor, Kiplinger.com
With over a decade of experience writing about the stock market, Karee Venema is the senior investing editor at Kiplinger.com. She joined the publication in April 2021, and oversees a wide range of investing coverage, including content focused on equities, fixed income, mutual funds, ETFs, macroeconomics and more.