On January 1, 2008, at 1:59 AM in Calipatria, California, an earthquake happened. You haven’t heard of this earthquake; even if you had been living in Calipatria, you wouldn’t have felt anything. It was magnitude -0.53, about the same amount of shaking as a truck passing by. Still, this earthquake is notable, not because it was large but because it was small—and yet we know about it.
Over the past seven years, AI tools based on computer imaging have almost completely automated one of the fundamental tasks of seismology: detecting earthquakes. What used to be the task of human analysts—and later, simpler computer programs—can now be done automatically and quickly by machine learning tools.
These machine learning tools can detect smaller earthquakes than human analysts, especially in noisy environments like cities. Earthquakes give valuable information about the composition of the Earth and what hazards might occur in the future.
“In the best-case scenario, when you adopt these new techniques, even on the same old data, it’s kind of like putting on glasses for the first time, and you can see the leaves on the trees,” said Kyle Bradley, co-author of the Earthquake Insights newsletter.
I talked with several earthquake scientists, and they all agreed that machine learning methods have replaced humans for the better in these specific tasks.
“It’s really remarkable,” Judith Hubbard, a Cornell University professor and Bradley’s co-author, told me.
Less certain is what comes next. Earthquake detection is a fundamental part of seismology, but there are many other data processing tasks that have yet to be disrupted. The biggest potential impacts, all the way to earthquake forecasting, haven’t materialized yet.
“It really was a revolution,” said Joe Byrnes, a professor at the University of Texas at Dallas. “But the revolution is ongoing.”
When an earthquake happens in one place, the shaking passes through the ground, similar to how sound waves pass through the air. In both cases, it’s possible to draw inferences about the materials the waves pass through.