Israel-Iran strikes likely just the opening salvo as markets reel

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Iran launched more than 100 drones toward Israeli territory Friday morning after Israel’s overnight missile strike on the country killed at least three of its senior military leaders.

“We can now confirm that the Chief of staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Commander of the IRGC and the Commander of Iran’s Emergency Command were all eliminated in the Israeli strikes across Iran,” Israel Defense Forces spokesperson Effie Defrin said.

“Iran launched approximately 100 UAVs towards Israeli territory, which we are working to intercept.”

Rocket sirens sounded in northern Jordan as Jordan’s state media reported the country intercepted several Iranian drones in its airspace.

Israel’s attack on Iran, which it said was targeted at nuclear enrichment facilities, came just days before U.S. and Iranian officials were set to attend a sixth round of nuclear deal talks. It was the largest attack on the Islamic Republic since the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s.

Iranian state news agency Tasnim on Friday afternoon local time reported a fresh wave of Israeli strikes on a military airport in the northwestern city of Tabriz. Around the same time, U.S. President Donald Trump made his first comments on the attacks in a post on Truth Social, urging Iran to reach a deal “before it’s too late.”

“I gave Iran the opportunity to make a deal. I told them, in the strongest terms, ‘Just do it.’ But no matter how hard they tried, and how close they got, they just couldn’t do it,” Trump wrote.

He added: “Now everyone is dead, and it’s only going to get worse but there is still time to stop this slaughter – before the next attacks, which are expected to be even more brutal. Iran must reach a deal. Just do it, before it’s too late. God bless you all!”

News of the strikes sent oil prices surging as much as 13% before paring gains, with global benchmark Brent crude surpassing $78 a barrel at one point.

Asian and European stocks fell, as investors rushed into safe havens amid fear of a wider war in a region that accounts for one-third of the world’s oil supply. Dow futures were down around 500 points at 6:35 a.m. ET.

Brent crude was last trading around $75.38 per barrel at 6:35 a.m. ET, up 8.5%, with U.S. WTI trading at $74.11 per barrel, up about 9%.

In televised remarks Friday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the opening strikes on dozens of Iranian sites as “very successful,” saying “we struck the senior command, we struck senior scientists that advance development of nuclear weapons, we struck nuclear installations.”

He also made it clear that his country will continue to attack Iran “until the threat is removed,” and said that Israelis may have to spend “far longer periods in shelters than we were accustomed to until now.”

All eyes are now on the next moves by Iran and the United States, particularly whether the U.S. will get involved in this conflict. The U.S. State Department has stated it was not involved in Israel’s overnight strikes on Iran, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio calling the actions unilateral and urging Iran not to target U.S. interests or personnel in the region.

Tehran does not see it that way. Iran’s Foreign Ministry warned it would hold Washington responsible for the consequences of Israel’s actions.

Trump is expected to attend a meeting of the National Security Council scheduled for 11 a.m. Eastern time.

Friday’s strikes and the Iranian response are likely just the beginning in a rapid cycle of escalation, according to regional analysts.

“My sense is, from what we can tell in this early hour — and the assessment of the damage is going to have to go on for days — is that this is probably still the opening salvo,” Firas Maksad, managing director for the Middle East and North Africa practice at Eurasia Group, told CNBC.

A fresh round of U.S.-Iran nuclear deal negotiations was scheduled for Sunday in Oman. Iranian officials have been cited by state media saying they will not be attending.

“If Iran does not come back to the negotiating table, as the U.S. has already called on it to do … then I think, and I fear, that Israel will have to take successive rounds of action to take out what’s left of Iran’s nuclear program,” Maksad said.

The strikes took place just one day after the IAEA Board of Governors — the U.N.’s nuclear watchdog — passed a resolution declaring Iran in noncompliance with its nuclear safeguards obligations for the first time in nearly 20 years.

In posts on social media platform X, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed a heavy response to Israel’s attacks.

“That [Zionist] regime should anticipate a severe punishment. By God’s grace, the powerful arm of the Islamic Republic’s Armed Forces won’t let them go unpunished.”

He wrote in a separate post: “In the enemy’s attacks, several commanders and scientists have been martyred. God willing, their successors and colleagues will carry on with their duties without delay.”

It is not yet known how and to what extent Iran will be able to deploy its arsenal of ballistic missiles and network of regional armed proxies in its efforts at retaliation.