Bank of America Securities (BofA) analyst Wamsi Mohan reiterated a Buy rating on International Business Machines Corp. IBM, raising the price forecast from $290 to $320.
Despite trading at all-time highs, Mohan argued that IBM remains interesting due to its transformational initiatives, positioning for growth in Gen AI, Agentic AI (and eventually quantum), and strong FCF driven by internal productivity initiatives.
The analyst highlighted IBM’s appeal as a defensive investment, noting its improving revenue growth. According to Mohan, this growth is expected to generate higher cash flow, which IBM can then strategically re-invest into further mergers and acquisitions (M&A).
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He said IBM underwent a significant transformation over the last five years by shifting its software segment towards strategic M&A investments, shedding lower-growth or high-cost businesses, and rebalancing its portfolio towards cloud and AI trends.
The Mainframe has become more relevant and drives everything from AI to increased software attachment and higher-quality MIPS in transaction processing, all of which support higher (accelerating) growth in the future, Mohan mentioned.
The analyst said the public cloud, a headwind from 2010-2020, incrementally poses a lower risk, while Hybrid takes a firm hold. He said IBM’s platform approach also drives higher value, given the multiplier effects of Hardware and Consulting. Mohan asserted that GenAI and RedHat can drive acceleration in the portfolio.
The analyst said that IBM remains structurally under-owned and underweight despite its recent rally. He noted that this disconnect stems from the underperformance from 2010-2019, as revenues, margins, and FCF were under pressure. While bears acknowledge the turnaround (2020-2025), the valuation relative to the growth profile remains a hurdle for many, Mohan said.
The analyst noted that while IBM has historically traded at a discount to large-cap software peers, its recent re-rating has pushed its valuation closer to premium territory despite still-limited growth.
As of the second quarter of 2025, Mohan noted that IBM trades at roughly 26x forward P/E and 21x P/FCF, more aligned with faster-growing SaaS names than legacy IT vendors.
Microsoft Corp MSFT trades at ~30x forward P/E and 42x EV/FCF but is growing revenue at 14-15% with higher operating leverage and leadership in cloud, office productivity, and AI, the analyst said.
Oracle Corp ORCL trades at ~28x forward P/E and 357x EV/FCF (FCF suffering from OCI investments) with double-digit revenue growth. However, he noted that the company has transitioned a significant portion of its business to recurring cloud-based revenue and has a strong IaaS strategy.
In contrast, Mohan said that IBM’s software segment grows ~6-8% organically and lacks a flagship SaaS product or hypergrowth vector.
He stated that much of its valuation uplift has been driven by cost efficiencies, dividend support, and investor rotation into “defensive tech” amid market volatility.
He noted that these drivers are less durable than secular product leadership or developer ecosystem strength. Moreover, Mohan said that IBM’s reliance on M&A to sustain growth could cap FCF expansion and weigh on the return on invested capital (ROIC).
If the growth fails to accelerate meaningfully, especially in AI or hybrid cloud, investors may reprice the stock closer to legacy IT multiples, exceptionally if broader tech resumes outperforming, the analyst said.
While IBM may benefit from low expectations and under-ownership, its current valuation offers little margin of safety unless it can prove that mid-single digit growth and 50%+ FCF payout justify a higher terminal multiple, he said.
For IBM, Mohan projected fiscal 2025 revenue of $65.8 billion and EPS of $10.95.
Price Action: IBM stock is trading higher by 1.18% to $286.39 at last check Wednesday.
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