Have Trump’s Iran strikes bolstered or eroded his credibility?

United States on Saturday conducted air strikes on three of Iran’s nuclear sites, entering Israel’s war against Tehran. The timing was unexpected. On Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump said he was still considering U.S. involvement and would arrive at a decision “within the next two weeks.”

Financial and political analysts had largely taken that phrase as code word for inaction.

“There is also skepticism that the ‘two-week’ timetable is a too familiar saying used by the President to delay making any major decision,” wrote Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets.

Indeed, Trump has commonly neglected to follow up after giving a “two week” timeframe on major actions, according to NBC News.

And who can forget the TACO trade? It’s an acronym that stands for “Trump Always Chickens Out” — which describes a pattern of the U.S. president threatening heavy tariffs, weighing down markets, but pausing or reducing their severity later on, helping stocks to rebound.

“Trump has to bury the TACO before the TACO buries him … he’s been forced to stand down on many occasion, and that has cost him a lot of credibility,” said David WOO, CEO of David Woo Unbound.

And so Trump followed up on his threat, and ahead of the proposed two-week timeline.

“There will be either peace, or there will be tragedy for Iran far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days,” Trump said on Saturday evening.

But given Trump’s criticism of U.S. getting involved in wars under other presidents, does America bombing Iran add to his credibility, or erode it further?

The U.S. strikes Iran
U.S. President Donald Trump on Saturday said the United States had attacked Iranian nuclear sites, pushing America into Israel’s war with its longtime rival. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said Sunday that “Iran’s nuclear ambitions have been obliterated.” The decision to attack Iran engages the American military in active warfare in the Middle East — something Trump had vowed to avoid.

Iran calls attacks ‘outrageous’
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Sunday said Tehran reserves all options to defend its sovereignty and people after the “outrageous” U.S. attacks on three of its major nuclear enrichment facilities. Iranian state-owned media, meanwhile, reported that Iran’s parliament backed closing the Strait of Hormuz, citing a senior lawmaker. The U.S. on Sunday called on China to prevent Iran from doing so.

Stock futures in U.S. retreat
U.S. futures slid Sunday evening stateside as investors reacted to Washington’s strikes on Iran. On Friday, U.S. markets mostly fell. The S&P 500 lost 0.22%, its third consecutive losing session, while the Nasdaq Composite retreated 0.51%. But the Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a 0.08% gain. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index ticked up 0.13%, but ended the week 1.5% lower.

Oil jumps but bitcoin slumps
Oil prices jumped Sunday evening in the U.S., its first trading session after Saturday’s strikes. U.S. crude oil rose $1.76, or 2.38%, to $75.60 per barrel, while global benchmark Brent was up $1.80, or 2.34%, to $78.81 per barrel. Meanwhile, bitcoin prices briefly dipped below the $99,000 mark Sunday, its lowest level in more than a month, before paring losses. It’s now trading around $100,940, down 1.5%.

[PRO] Eyes on inflation reading
Where markets go this week will depend on whether the conflict in the Middle East escalates after the U.S.’ involvement. Investors should also keep an eye on economic data. May’s personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation, comes out Friday, and will tell if tariffs are starting to heat up inflation.

How regime change in Iran could affect global oil prices

Senior Israeli officials said this week that their military campaign against Iran could trigger the fall of the regime, an event that would have enormous implications for the global oil market.

There are no signs that the regime in Iran is on the verge of collapse, said Scott Modell, CEO of the consulting firm Rapidan Energy Grop.

But further political destabilization in Iran “could lead to significantly higher oil prices sustained over extended periods,” said Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities research at JPMorgan, in a note to clients this week.

There have been eight cases of regime change in major oil-producing countries since 1979, according to JPMorgan. Oil prices spiked 76% on average at their peak in the wake of these changes, before pulling back to stabilize at a price about 30% higher compared to pre-crisis levels, according to the bank.