Dylan Patel is the founder of SemiAnalysis, a research & analysis company specializing in semiconductors, GPUs, CPUs, and AI hardware. Nathan Lambert is a research scientist at the Allen Institute for AI (Ai2) and the author of a blog on AI called Interconnects.
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*OUTLINE:*
0:00 – Introduction
3:33 – DeepSeek-R1 and DeepSeek-V3
25:07 – Low cost of training
51:25 – DeepSeek compute cluster
58:57 – Export controls on GPUs to China
1:09:16 – AGI timeline
1:18:41 – China’s manufacturing capacity
1:26:36 – Cold war with China
1:31:05 – TSMC and Taiwan
1:54:44 – Best GPUs for AI
2:09:36 – Why DeepSeek is so cheap
2:22:55 – Espionage
2:31:57 – Censorship
2:44:52 – Andrej Karpathy and magic of RL
2:55:23 – OpenAI o3-mini vs DeepSeek r1
3:14:31 – NVIDIA
3:18:58 – GPU smuggling
3:25:36 – DeepSeek training on OpenAI data
3:36:04 – AI megaclusters
4:11:26 – Who wins the race to AGI?
4:21:39 – AI agents
4:30:21 – Programming and AI
4:37:49 – Open source
4:47:01 – Stargate
4:54:30 – Future of AI
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