Alibaba Group Holding BABA stock has surged 28% year-to-date, topping the NYSE Composite’s 8% gain and the NYSE Arca China’s 18%. It has gained over 44% in the last twelve months.
The Chinese e-commerce giant’s core e-commerce and cloud businesses, strategic investments in artificial intelligence, and phase-out of non-core assets have been fueling the upside for the company, which is also deemed the tech barometer of China.
Cloud And AI
Specifically, the company’s Cloud Intelligence Group is experiencing accelerating growth, particularly in AI-related products, and its Qwen AI model family is gaining traction.
Also Read: Alibaba Co-Founder Sees Open-Source Qwen Driving Cloud Demand
In June, Alibaba released its updated Qwen3 AI models, aiming to unlock value by enabling Apple Inc AAPL to deploy machine-learning features on iPhones, iPads, and MacBooks in China.
This move supports Apple’s push to expand its Apple Intelligence suite in the region while aligning with China’s regulatory requirements for public AI model use.
Also in June, Alibaba’s Damo Academy and Zhejiang Cancer Hospital co-developed an AI model, Grape, to detect gastric cancer from 3D CT scans. The Grape model identifies early-stage stomach cancer and significantly outperforms radiologists, according to Nature Medicine.
Alibaba continues integrating AI into healthcare, building on its 2023 breakthrough in pancreatic cancer detection.
Alibaba is aggressively expanding its global cloud presence, opening new data centers in Malaysia, South Korea, and the Philippines. By 2025, it plans to extend Qwen AI models and Model Studio globally and launch a global AI hub in Singapore.
The company aims to grow its cloud network across China, Asia, the Middle East, Europe, and the Americas over the next three years.
Backed by a $52 billion investment, Alibaba pushes international growth amid U.S. tensions and intensifies AI competition in China.
Market Share And Earnings
In 2025, the revenue in the smartphone market in China could reach $111.86 billion, as per Statista, implying a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.31% from 2025 to 2030.
Revenue in the public cloud market worldwide could reach $980.30 billion in 2025, as per Statista. The revenue could post an annual growth rate (CAGR 2025-2030) of 17.12%, resulting in a market volume of $2.16 trillion by 2030.
In May, Alibaba reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue growth of 7% to $32.58 billion, missing the analyst consensus estimate of $33.08 billion. Revenue from Taobao and Tmall Group grew by 9% to $13.97 billion. Revenue from Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group increased by 22% to $4.63 billion. Cloud Intelligence Group revenue grew by 18% to $4.15 billion.
While near-term margin pressure remains a concern, Benchmark analyst Fawne Jiang noted Alibaba as a leading beneficiary of accelerated AI adoption in China and a top structural player in the sector.
Alibaba’s consensus price forecast is $146.81, based on the ratings of 17 analysts. With an average price forecast of $159.33, Alibaba’s implied upside from these most recent analyst ratings is 46.6%.
Price Action: BABA shares are trading lower by 2.06% to $108.43 at last check on Thursday.
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