OpenAI just announced GPT-5. I stand by my predictions from a couple weeks ago; none of the problems I said would not be solved appear to have been solved..
Here’s my hot take:
• Took almost 3 years, many billions of dollars (over a half-trillion fieldwide).
• Good progress on many fronts.
• But still part of the pack, not a giant leap forward (e.g. Grok 4 beats it on ARC-AGI-2 results)
• OpenAI conveniently forgot to include this comparison (ARC-AGI-2) in their livestream recital of benchmark progress, which left the livestream looking like marketing rather than science.
• Fan will still find something to rejoince in, but GPT-5 is not the huge leap forward people long expected.
• Lots of questions TBD about real-world performance.
• GPT-5 is obviously not AGI.
Also:
• Pricing is good, but profits may continue to be elusive; still no clear technical moat.
• What was up with multiple graphs (at least two) in which the bars didn’t match the numbers? Did GPT-5 make them??
Quote of the day: “I dont wanna read anything about exponential progress anymore”,
—X user @flowersslop
and for good measure, a deceptive (or just confused?) graph about deception:
“AGI 2027” seems more and more remote by the day.
Gary Marcus thinks that perhaps scaling is not in fact all you need.