Right now, some HR leaders can’t see the forest for the trees when it comes to their talent acquisition strategy.
Net employment expectations fell for the third quarter of 2025 as ongoing economic uncertainty continues to fuel employers’ reluctance to commit to hiring plans, a new survey of 6,000 US employers from staffing firm ManpowerGroup found. While it’s understandably difficult to strategize with ever-changing global trade policies, getting caught up in the turmoil also comes with its own set of ramifications, one expert told HR Brew.
Lowered expectations. US organizations’ net employment outlook for the third quarter, or July through September—calculated by subtracting plans for layoffs from hiring expectations—fell to 30%, down from 34% in the prior quarter, according to ManpowerGroup’s survey.
More specifically, 44% of employers expect to increase recruitment, while another 39% plan to maintain their current staffing levels, 14% expect to decrease their ranks, and 3% are unsure.
“Employers continue to just be cautious,” Rajesh Namboothiry, SVP at Manpower US, told HR Brew. “They’re hiring for key roles. They’re pausing on roles that are not of significant strategic importance because that’s a reflection of their overall demand cycle as well.”
Of the industries ManpowerGroup surveyed, information technology, financials and real estate, and industrials and materials were most likely to hire, while energy and utilities, and communication services were among those with the lowest outlooks. Large companies with 250–5,000 workers also had the strongest hiring intentions (35% or more), while small employers with 10 or less staffers reported the weakest (less than 29%).
Short-sighted. Economic uncertainty, fueled by the Trump administration’s ongoing and ever-changing tariff threats, continued to impact employers’ outlooks. Of organizations expecting to decrease their workforce in the next quarter, 44% said economic challenges were the reason why. And 58% of employers overall cited global trade uncertainty as creating “moderate” to “a lot of” impact on their hiring decisions.
The IT sector reported the highest volatility from global trade uncertainty at 69%, followed by financials and real estate (62%) and communication services (58%).
Employers are “plagued by the economic challenges,” Namboothiry said, and keep getting caught up thinking about talent strategy in the short-term.
“They’re sitting tight and saying, ‘Okay, one more month. Let’s see how it goes, and then we’ll start hiring.’ But very soon, you’ll start to get into the 2026 planning cycle, the next three years’ cycle,” he noted. HR leaders instead need to focus on the next two-to-three-years ahead, the market shifts that might happen during that time, and what’s required to get ahead of them now. “Look at the longer term horizon. Don’t be tactical and transactional for what you need today or next month,” Namboothiry said.
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Getting caught up in the turmoil comes with its own ramifications
