SAN FRANCISCO—Technology veteran IBM on Tuesday laid out a plan to have a “practical” quantum computer tackling big problems before the end of this decade.
Current quantum computers are still experimental and face significant challenges, including high error rates. Companies like IBM, Google, and others are working to build more stable and scalable quantum systems.
Real-world innovations that quantum computing has the potential to tackle include developing better fuels, materials, pharmaceuticals, or even new elements. However, delivering on that promise has always seemed some way off.
IBM insists that it is now closer than ever and can map out the path toward having a quantum system that can fulfill actual use cases.
This breakthrough comes thanks to a system being built in a data center in Poughkeepsie, New York, which IBM billed as a pioneering move toward making quantum an everyday work tool.
The company’s “Starling” quantum computer, targeted for completion in four years, will serve as the foundation for a next-generation machine ready by 2033 that will be dramatically more powerful in terms of the complexity of the problems it can tackle.
“You’ve probably heard people talk about all these things, but we actually have plans for how to build it,” IBM fellow and director of quantum systems Jerry Chow told AFP.
The performance leap by Starling from today’s systems will be on par with the jump from flip phones to smartphones, according to the company.
Chow credited an innovative way to correct errors and ramp up fault tolerance with clearing the way for Starling.
“People talk about error correction from the point of view of it being the Holy Grail,” Chow said. “That really is the thing that is necessary to drive solutions at scale.”
While hailing IBM’s “significant advancement,” Gartner analyst Mark Horvath noted that challenges remain despite the milestone and said real-world applications for quantum systems remain “somewhat theoretical.”
Quantum AI?
After several dashed predictions, quantum computing is accelerating rapidly.
US tech giants, startups, banks, and pharmaceutical companies are pouring investments into this revolutionary technology.
IBM announced plans in April to invest $150 billion in the United States over five years, including $30 billion earmarked for research and development to bolster manufacturing of mainframe and quantum computers.
IBM has also outlined a “quantum-centric supercomputing” vision that involves using the new technology to augment traditional computer resources, letting each play to its strengths.
If all goes to plan, quantum computing could start hitting its stride as generative artificial intelligence (AI) improves at breakneck speed, giving it incredible processing power.
“The potential is tremendous,” Chow said.
Ever More Powerful
Quantum computers already operate today.
IBM claims its quantum services have generated sales of $1 billion, though current applications remain limited mainly to research.
While classical computing relies on bits — the smallest, most basic unit of digital information — with just two states (0 or 1), quantum computing harnesses so-called qubits with infinite possible states.
The “Bluejay” system, slated for completion four years after the “Starling” in 2033, will operate with 2,000 logical qubits and a billion “quantum gates” — a technical reference to operations or parts of a problem it can handle, according to IBM.
Each added qubit theoretically doubles computing capacity, allowing quantum computers to analyze countless possibilities simultaneously, solving in minutes what might take millions of years classically.
“This is the most exciting thing that I can be spending my time on,” said Chow, who has worked on quantum at IBM for 15 years. “We get to redefine what computation looks like for the future.”
IBM — which has trailed Microsoft, Amazon, and Google for classic computing products in recent years — claims the world’s largest fleet of quantum computing systems.
Google late last year showed off a new quantum computing chip that it said could bring practical quantum computing closer to reality.
Its custom chip called “Willow” does in minutes what it would take leading supercomputers 10 septillion years to complete, according to the search engine giant.
Tech giant Microsoft in February unveiled its own quantum computer chip, Majorana 1, saying it made the technology more reliable for real-world use.