DeepSeek’s picks
Asset Ticker symbol Weight Thesis Edge Risk
1 TJX Cos. Inc. TJX 10% Thrives on tariff-driven inventory discounts and resilient off-price retail demand. Opportunistic buying offsets supply-chain disruptions. Consumer pullback in discretionary spending.
2 Waste Management Inc. WM 8% Steady cash flows from essential waste services; Stericycle acquisition diversifies into medical waste. Pricing power and recession-resistant model. Economic slowdown slightly reduces commercial volumes.
3 Progressive Corp. 8% Insurance demand remains robust amid economic uncertainty; attractive valuation and dividend. Premium hikes offset inflation pressures. Tariffs raise claims costs (e.g., auto parts).
4 BlackRock Inc. BLK 8% Dominant asset manager ($11.6T AUM) benefits from flight to stability and private-market growth. Diversified revenue streams buffer volatility. Slowing inflows if markets remain choppy.
5 Prudential Financial Inc. PRU 8% Undervalued (P/E 7.6) with 4.84% yield; international diversification cushions U.S. slowdown. Asset-based businesses generate steady income. Rising unemployment pressures life insurance.
6 American Tower Corp. AMT 8% Data-center demand surges; Fed rate-cut hopes support REIT valuations. Organic growth (6.5% year-on-year) and 3.13% yield. Tariffs on equipment raise capex costs.
7 Merck & Co., Inc. MRK 7% Defensive pharma play with oncology dominance and 3.61% yield. Global drug-pricing power in inflationary environment. Pipeline setbacks or regulatory risks.
8 Cencora Inc. COR 7% Healthcare distribution is essential; 10% EPS growth at reasonable valuation. Critical middleman role in drug supply chains. Negative FCF limits M&A flexibility.
9 Clorox Co. CLX 6% Pricing power via IGNITE strategy; 3.31% yield in a staple sector. Cost savings offset tariff-driven input inflation. Margin squeeze if pricing elasticity falters.
10 Visa Inc. V 5% Resilient payment network with 54% margins; global transaction growth. Essential infrastructure for digital spending. Consumer debt limits card usage.
11 Kinder Morgan Inc. KMI 5% 4.3% yield with LNG/data center tailwinds; $8.1B backlog insulates against slowdown. Midstream stability amid energy volatility. Tariffs raise pipeline material costs.
12 Intuit Inc. INTU 5% AI-driven tax/accounting tools gain traction in cost-cutting environment. High switching costs and $198B TAM. Tech sell-offs pressure premium valuation.
13 ConocoPhillips COP 5% Domestic energy focus offsets tariff risks; $10B shareholder returns. Willow project boosts long-term production. Oil demand softens in slowing economy.
14 AMZN 5% Scale mitigates tariff costs; cloud/AI growth offsets retail risks. $101B cash reserves for strategic flexibility. Consumer-spending slowdown hits e-commerce.
15 SPGI 4% Critical data/ratings provider in volatile markets; 27% margins. “Essential utility” for institutional investors. High valuation (P/E 41.1) risks multiple compression.
Total 99%
DeepSeek’s weightings fell short, amounting to 99%. When Lopez-Lira pointed that out, the AI responded with two possible reasons for the discrepancy. The first was that it could have been based on a rounding issue. The second was that it may have decided to keep a 1% cash allocation. The model could not confirm which option was the accurate reason for the decision.
Performance
Like any investment strategy, there’s risk involved, and past performance isn’t guaranteed to continue, Lopez-Lira said. As long as the portfolios buy stocks or stick to long-only positions, he expects them to match the S&P 500’s performance, or perhaps over- or underperform by a small margin. Though it’s important to note that rotating stocks on a monthly basis outside a tax-advantaged account could lead to tax liabilities for short-term capital gains, which are taxed at a higher rate than assets held for over a year.
While Lopez-Lira said his findings suggest AI can mimic the services professional portfolio managers provide, some analysts disagree. Michael Robbins, author of Quantitative Asset Management, noted that, while each model’s investing strategy may look like it works, there’s no way to know for certain. For example, in the new AI era, there hasn’t been a massive stock-market crash or an event like the 2008 financial crisis to determine how an AI-led investment account would respond.
You’re perhaps thinking that humans are shaped by their own memories and experiences, too. But Robbins said that people live through those experiences. It means a person has navigated an event without foresight, perhaps even with a bit of intuition. Meanwhile, the machines are pretrained. That said, he would equate AI’s skills to that of an investment manager who recently entered the workforce and is working from textbook knowledge. Additionally, he noted that while both humans and machines make mistakes, AI can hallucinate, causing it to make more extreme, and unacceptable, errors.
It’s also important to note that the three AI investment accounts on Autopilot only rebalance monthly, so they aren’t able to react to any sudden changes. Finally, Lopez-Lira remains in the loop, overseeing the choices and making sure the appropriate information is considered. For that, he receives a small percentage of revenue from the subscriptions that have opted into the account.
Lopez-Lira began managing ChatGPT’s portfolio in September 2023. The returns, which are based on the aggregate results of client portfolios, are 43.5% from September 2023 to May 30, 2025, according to Autopilot. The S&P 500 had a total return of 34.7% over the same period, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
In comparison, Grok’s portfolio returned 2.3% since its inception on Feb. 11 of this year through May 30, according to Autopilot. The S&P 500 had a total return that was down 2.2% over the same period, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
DeepSeek was down 0.25% since its inception on Feb. 3 through May 30, according to Autopilot. The S&P 500 had a negative total return of 0.93% for the same period, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
-Laila Maidan
This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
06-07-25 0830ET
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